How to Choose a Craps Dice Set That Will Help You WIN! V Sets - Duration: 8:10. Golden Touch Craps 101,556 views. We went to a show (Jamey Johnson) and got back in the casino about 9:45 hoping to play Bubble craps - not a seat in sight. My son was tired and went to the room. I bought into the $25 table for $500 with same strategy as above and did well - colored up +$500 and called it quits.
Cutthroat Craps: The Golden Shooters - Part 2 by Frank Scoblete
Last issue, I described two craps shooters, A and B. Shooter A just winged the dice down the layout as if he were trying to not only hit the back wall but send the dice right through it. Shooter B, however, took great care with his dice sets, grip, and delivery. But is Shooter B, the shooter who takes deliberate care with his rolls, really a Golden Shooter? Is he really capable of changing the nature of the game so that an astute bettor, such as yourself, can take advantage of his roll? From the information I’ve given you, you could not state definitively one way or the other. In fact, some pundits would say that you could make a strong argument from the above information I have given you that you can not make any argument at all from the above information!
I think those pundits are wrong.
Here is what the above information tells us:
1. Shooter A is definitely a random roller, not a rhythmic roller. He couldn’t possibly have any control over the dice at all. You bet on all the shooter A’s of the world and craps can’t possibly be anything more than its mathematical underpinnings -- which is to say, you will lose in the long run that percentage of your total action based on the types of bets you make. Period. Shooter A is a waste of your time. In addition to that, Shooter A’s choice of alcoholic beverage is suspect and his jokes are bad. Why risk your money on him?
2. Shooter B has a chance to be a Golden Shooter as he seems to be very careful with his dice set, delivery and betting. As you watch Shooter B it is obvious that he thinks he has some effect on the dice or he would not take such deliberate care with his roll.
3. If both Shooter A and Shooter B have absolutely no control whatsoever over the dice, or if rhythmic rolling does not exist and Golden Shooters are merely a figment of my overactive imagination in unholy alliance with my wishful thinking, betting only on Shooter B and avoiding Shooter A is still a smart move! Why? Because you have cut your exposure to the house edge!
4. Shooter B is also very much aware that he is playing two distinct games against the casino when he rolls. He is playing the game of craps and all that that entails, but he is also playing the comp game. That’s right. His deciding to Place his numbers before his come-out roll and leaving them off during the come-out roll indicates that he is aware the floorperson will record his maximum spread -- $170 + his Pass Line wager -- and not his spread when his Pass Line bet might bump down the Place bet. Bumping down the Place bet and taking Odds usually reduces the 'comp' spread because most casinos do not give you credit for the Odds bet -- an important thing to consider. Another important thing to consider is that his bets are not working, not at risk, yet still earning him comp credit.
5. Therefore, you have nothing to lose and everything to gain by assuming that Shooter B is a Golden Shooter. If he isn’t, so what? You have cut your exposure to the house edge so you are actually reducing your losses. That’s a gain. But if he is a Golden Shooter, then you have a chance to play a positive-expectation craps game! And that could be a terrific gain indeed.
BETTING ON SHOOTER B
Since you really have nothing to lose and everything to gain by avoiding Shooter A and betting on Shooter B, the next question is how should we bet on him? Should we go the traditional Pass/Come with Odds, or should we figure some other method of betting?
I’d like to propose that in Shooter B’s case above, we deviate from tradition and mimic his bets because those are the numbers he’ll tend to hit! If he is indeed a rhythmic roller and our longed-for Golden Shooter, he will tend to hit certain dice combinations more often (slightly, moderately, or greatly more often as the case may be) and he’ll tend to bet what has made him money in the past. It makes sense then to bet with him then. That would mean Placing the 6 and 8 and Buying the 4 (if you can afford it).
Would the casino have a significantly greater edge on you if you did mimic Shooter B? Not really. Placing the 6 and 8 comes in with a house edge of 1.52 percent, while buying the 4 for $25 or $50, and only paying the vig if you win, comes in at about 1.3 percent. Essentially you are making a bet that has a combined house edge close to that of the Pass Line or Come when you don’t take odds.
Of course, skillful, professional, rhythmic rollers such as Dominator, Howard Newman and Mr. Finesse of Golden Touch™ Craps have different dice sets for different parts of the game. For example, on the come-out where the 7 is a desirable number, you might see these guys use one set and, once the point is established, you will note he sets an entirely different way. You’ll note that he does this every time it is his turn to roll -- come-out roll, one dice set; attempting to make the point or other numbers, a different dice set.
Still, most Golden Shooters will not be that accomplished and they will, sadly, not be found 50 percent of the time as in the example of Shooters A and B above. Indeed, you will probably discover that the overwhelming majority of players will be more like Shooter A than Shooter B and that even those players who do take care with their dice sets will often just fling the dice down the table once those sets are completed or, conversely, those who take great care with their shooting style will often not care how the dice are set before they shoot. Neither of these types is a Golden Shooter. They just have developed a bit of style in their shooting.
The Fire Bet pays based on how many unique points a shooter can make before sevening out. Please see my page on the Fire Bet for the rules rules and analysis.
The Different Doubles pays based on the number of distinct doubles the shooter rolls before a seven. Please see my page on the Different Doubles for the rules rules and analysis.
Details about this side bet can be found in my Ride the Line page.
This is a simple side bet that wins if the come out roll is a seven or a 'point-7' (point established and seven on the next roll). For the full rules and analysis, please see my page on Muggsy's Corner.
This set of three side bets, originally called the Hot Hand, can be found at the Hard Rock Cincinnati. They if various sets of totals are rolled before a seven. Please see my page on Hard Rockin' Dice for more information.
This pair of bets are based on the total of the dice in one throw. The 'Low Dice' bet pays 1 to 1 on totals of 3 to 6 and 5 to 1 on a total of 2. The 'High Dice' pays 1 to 1 on totals of 8 to 11 and 5 to 1 on a total of 12. The following return table on the Low Dice bet shows the house edge is 5.56%. The High Dice bet is the opposite so has the same house edge.
Total | Combinations | Probability | Pays | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 1 | 0.027778 | 5 | 0.138889 |
3 to 6 | 14 | 0.388889 | 1 | 0.388889 |
7 to 12 | 21 | 0.583333 | -1 | -0.583333 |
Total | 36 | 1 | -0.055556 |
In some jurisdictions, namely California, dice alone may not determine the outcome of a bet. In the game of 'Card Craps' 24-card decks are used each consisting of ranks ace to six in all four suits. Two cards are drawn to simulate the roll of the dice. If the suits are different the 'roll' stands. If the suits are the same, then the roll is ignored for all craps bets. The odds on all craps bets are the same as if dice were used.
However, there is an extra bet called the 'No Call.' This bet pays 3 to 1 if the two cards are suited, otherwise it loses. The house edge depends on the number of 24-card decks used as shown below.
Decks | Probability | House Edge |
---|---|---|
1 | 0.217391 | 13.0435% |
2 | 0.234043 | 6.383% |
3 | 0.239437 | 4.2254% |
4 | 0.242105 | 3.1579% |
5 | 0.243697 | 2.521% |
6 | 0.244755 | 2.0979% |
7 | 0.245509 | 1.7964% |
8 | 0.246073 | 1.5707% |
9 | 0.246512 | 1.3953% |
10 | 0.246862 | 1.2552% |
11 | 0.247148 | 1.1407% |
12 | 0.247387 | 1.0453% |
13 | 0.247588 | 0.9646% |
14 | 0.247761 | 0.8955% |
15 | 0.247911 | 0.8357% |
16 | 0.248042 | 0.7833% |
The Showboat in Atlantic City I'm told has a Midway bet in the normal location of the Big 6 and Big 8 on a total of 6 to 8 in the next roll. A hard 6 or 8 pay 2 to 1, and all other totals of 6 to 8 pay 1 to 1. The following table shows the house edge is 5.56%.
Total | Combinations | Probability | Pays | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hard 6,8 | 2 | 0.055556 | 2 | 0.111111 |
Soft 6,8 | 8 | 0.222222 | 1 | 0.222222 |
7 | 6 | 0.166667 | 1 | 0.166667 |
All other | 20 | 0.555556 | -1 | -0.555556 |
Total | 36 | 1 | -0.055556 |
Bonus Craps is a set of three side bets, the Small, Tall, and All. For all the details, please visit my Bonus Craps page.
I hear that Sam's Town in both Las Vegas and Shreveport offer this bet. The bet wins if the shooter can go four throws without rolling a seven. A win pays 1 to 1. The odds are as follows.
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
Win | 1 | 0.482253 | 0.482253 |
Loss | -1 | 0.517747 | -0.517747 |
Total | 1 | -0.035494 |
The 'Golden Dice Challenge' is a craps side bet found at the MGM Grand in Detroit. The bet pays according to the number of pass line wins the player has before a seven-out. For purposes of the side bet, a win may be made either by rolling a 7 or 11 on the come out roll, or making a point. Rolling a 2, 3, or 12 on the come out roll does not affect the bet. There is a maximum win of $5,000.
The following return table shows the pays, probabilities, and return from each event, based on a $1 bet.
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
20 or more | 5000 to 1 | 0.000008 | 0.037819 |
17 to 19 | 2000 to 1 | 0.000037 | 0.07358 |
15 to 16 | 1000 to 1 | 0.0001 | 0.099877 |
13 to 14 | 100 to 1 | 0.000325 | 0.032478 |
11 to 12 | 50 to 1 | 0.001056 | 0.052806 |
9 to 10 | 25 to 1 | 0.003434 | 0.085858 |
7 to 8 | 10 to 1 | 0.011168 | 0.111678 |
5 to 6 | 5 to 1 | 0.036316 | 0.181578 |
0 to 4 | Loss | 0.947557 | -0.947557 |
Total | 1 | -0.271883 |
Assuming the maximum win is $5000 the following is the house edge for various bet amounts.
Bet | House Edge |
---|---|
$100 | 49.22% |
$50 | 46.87% |
$25 | 45.43% |
$10 | 41.10% |
$5 | 33.89% |
$4 | 32.78% |
$3 | 30.94% |
$2 | 29.08% |
$1 | 27.19% |
7 Point 7 is a craps side bet, which debuted at the Orleans casino in Las Vegas, in late 2008. I have also seen it at the Hard Rock in Macau under the name 'Double Trip Seven.' The bet wins if the player gets a seven on the come out roll, or the dreaded 'point 7,' where the player sevens out on his second roll. The following table shows a house edge of 5.56%.
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
7 on come out roll | 2 | 0.166667 | 0.333333 |
Point 7 | 3 | 0.111111 | 0.333333 |
Loser | -1 | 0.722222 | -0.722222 |
Total | 1 | -0.055556 |
The 'Sharp Shooter' is a side bet in craps spotted at the Hooters casino in Las Vegas in March, 2009. I hear it was removed in 2014.
The bet is made when a new shooter takes the dice, and pays according to how many times he makes a point. The following table shows what each number of points made pays and the probability. Pays have been converted to a 'to one' basis, to be consistent with the rest of this page. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 21.87%.
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
10 or more | 299 | 0.000122 | 0.03644 |
9 | 199 | 0.000178 | 0.035474 |
8 | 99 | 0.000439 | 0.043461 |
7 | 49 | 0.001081 | 0.052975 |
6 | 29 | 0.002662 | 0.077212 |
5 | 19 | 0.006557 | 0.12458 |
4 | 9 | 0.016148 | 0.145328 |
3 | 5 | 0.039766 | 0.198831 |
2 or less | -1 | 0.933047 | -0.933047 |
Total | 1 | -0.218744 |
I noticed this bet at the City of Dreams in Macau in August 2009. It is the same thing as the7 Point 7 bet aleady described.
I saw this side bet at the 2009 Global Gaming Expo, and in June 2010 at the Las Vegas Hilton. It is licensed by Casino Gaming LLC. It is a side wager made on the come out roll. If the player rolls a point, and then a seven on the second roll, the bet pays 7 to 1. All other outcomes lose. The following table shows the house edge is 11.11%.
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
Win | 7 | 0.111111 | 0.777778 |
Loss | -1 | 0.888889 | -0.888889 |
Total | 1 | -0.111111 |
Replay is a craps side bet I spotted at the Boulder Station on September 16, 2010. It pays if the shooter makes the same point at least 3 times before sevening out. For my full analysis, please see my page on the Replay side bet.
Twice as Nice is a side bet that has been seen at an unknown casino in Biloxi. It wins if the shooter throws any specific pair, including a total of 2 and 12, twice before a seven. For example, rolling a hard 10 twice before a 7. Wins pay 6 to 1. The following table shows a house edge of 29.40%.
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
Win | 6 | 0.100863 | 0.605178 |
Loss | -1 | 0.899137 | -0.899137 |
Total | 1 | -0.293959 |
A win of 7 to 1 would have a house edge of 19.31%, and 8 to 1 would be 9.22%.
Pete and Repeat has also been seen at the same mystery casino in Biloxi. It wins if any total is rolled twice before a 7. Wins pay even money. The following table shows a house edge of 5.79%.
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
Win | 1 | 0.471066 | 0.471066 |
Loss | -1 | 0.528934 | -0.528934 |
Total | 1 | -0.057868 |
In April 2012 I heard this side bet was being offered at the Harrington Raceway casino in Harrington, Delaware. It pays if the shooter makes at least four unique doubles before he sevens out. Come out rolls do not count. The following table shows all the possible outcomes, what they pay (on a 'to one' basis), the probability, and return. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 14.71%.
Unique Doubles | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
6 | 250 | 0.001083 | 0.270633 |
5 | 50 | 0.006494 | 0.324683 |
4 | 10 | 0.022728 | 0.227282 |
0 to 3 | -1 | 0.969696 | -0.969696 |
Total | 1.000000 | -0.147097 |
In April 2012 I heard this side bet was being offered at the Harrington Raceway casino in Harrington, Delaware. It acts like a place bet, winning on any double except 6-6, and losing on seven. The following return table shows the a house edge of 1.52%, per bet resolved.
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Double, except 6-6 | 1.166667 | 5 | 0.454545 | 0.530303 |
Seven | -1 | 6 | 0.545455 | -0.545455 |
Total | 11 | 1.000000 | -0.015152 |
On December 27, 2013, a member of my Wizard of Vegas forum posted about seeing this side bet at the Dover Downs casino in Delaware. It pays based on how many 'completed points' the shooter gets before rolling a seven. The shooter completes a point when he rolls it in all possible ways. For example, to complete a point of eight the shooter would need to roll a 2+6, 3+5, and 4+4. Following are the complete rules.
Completed Points | Pays |
---|---|
6 | 200 to 1 |
5 | 50 to 1 |
4 | 20 to 1 |
3 | 10 to 1 |
2 | 5 to 1 |
0 or 1 | Loss |
The following table shows the probability and contribution to the return for all possible outcomes. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.50%. There are certainly much worse things you could bet on in craps.
Completed Points | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
6 | 200 | 0.000412 | 0.082441 |
5 | 50 | 0.002219 | 0.110968 |
4 | 20 | 0.007528 | 0.150567 |
3 | 10 | 0.021193 | 0.211934 |
2 | 5 | 0.056287 | 0.281435 |
0 or 1 | -1 | 0.912360 | -0.912360 |
Total | 1.000000 | -0.075013 |
My methodology was a random simulation of 28 billion resolved bets.
Repeater is a set of craps side bets I noticed at the Suncoast casino in Las Vegas on April 6, 2015. The idea is that the player must roll a given number a specified number of times before a seven. For bets on 2 to 6, the player must roll that total the same number of times as the total itself. For example, for the bet on the number five to win, the shooter must roll 5 fives before a seven. For totals of 8 to 12, the player must roll the total 14 less whatever the total is. For example, on a total of 11, the player must roll an eleven 14-11=3 times before a seven.
The following is what each specific bet pays:The following table shows the probability of winning and house edge of each bet.
Bet | Pays (for 1) | Probability | House Edge |
---|---|---|---|
2 | 40 | 0.020408 | 0.183673 |
3 | 50 | 0.015625 | 0.218750 |
4 | 65 | 0.012346 | 0.197531 |
5 | 80 | 0.010240 | 0.180800 |
6 | 90 | 0.008820 | 0.206209 |
8 | 90 | 0.008820 | 0.206209 |
9 | 80 | 0.010240 | 0.180800 |
10 | 65 | 0.012346 | 0.197531 |
11 | 50 | 0.015625 | 0.218750 |
12 | 40 | 0.020408 | 0.183673 |
At Caesars Palace I noticed they added a 'Dealer Envy' win to the same Suncoast pay table above. The following table shows the return to the player, the dealer, and the total.
Dice Total | Number Needed | Player Win | Dealer Envy | Player Return | Dealer Return | Total Return |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 40 | 2 | 81.63% | 4.08% | 85.71% |
3 | 3 | 50 | 3 | 78.13% | 4.69% | 82.81% |
4 | 4 | 65 | 4 | 80.25% | 4.94% | 85.19% |
5 | 5 | 80 | 5 | 81.92% | 5.12% | 87.04% |
6 | 6 | 90 | 6 | 79.38% | 5.29% | 84.67% |
8 | 6 | 90 | 6 | 79.38% | 5.29% | 84.67% |
9 | 5 | 80 | 5 | 81.92% | 5.12% | 87.04% |
10 | 4 | 65 | 4 | 80.25% | 4.94% | 85.19% |
11 | 3 | 50 | 3 | 78.13% | 4.69% | 82.81% |
12 | 2 | 40 | 2 | 81.63% | 4.08% | 85.71% |
It should be noted that the player can achieve the same thing by parlaying place/buy bets. Here is the same chart for the better of place and buy bets. This assumes a buy bet on the 4 with commission on a win only (effective odds of 59 for 20), place bet on the 5 paying 7 to 5, and place bet on the 6 paying 7 to 6.
Bet | Pays (for 1) | Probability | House Edge |
---|---|---|---|
4 | 75.73 | 0.012346 | 0.065018 |
5 | 79.63 | 0.010240 | 0.184627 |
6 | 103.46 | 0.008820 | 0.087534 |
Note how the house edge is lower on the 4 and 6 making place/buy bets, but greater on the 5.
According to the patent application for the Repeater Bets there are some other variants, as follows:
Bet | Pays (for 1) | Probability | House Edge |
---|---|---|---|
2 | 40 | 0.020408163265 | 0.183673 |
3 | 50 | 0.015625000000 | 0.218750 |
4 | 65 | 0.012345679012 | 0.197531 |
5 | 80 | 0.010240000000 | 0.180800 |
6 | 90 | 0.008819905157 | 0.206209 |
8 | 400 | 0.001822294454 | 0.271082 |
9 | 2,500 | 0.000262144000 | 0.344640 |
10 | 25,000 | 0.000016935088 | 0.576623 |
11 | 100,000 | 0.000000238419 | 0.976158 |
12 | 50,000,000 | 0.000000000072 | 0.996388 |
The over and under 7 are a pair of side bets I noticed at the New York, New York on January 6, 2017. You can find them where the Big 6 and 8 bets used to be. Both bets pay even money bets and win if the next roll is over/under a 7. So, a total of 7 causes both to lose. The probability of winning is 15/36=41.67% and the house edge is 16.67% (ouch!).
On May 30, 2017 I noticed place bets on the hard ways on the craps tables at the Orleans casino in Las Vegas. These would win if the specified hard way, for example 5-5, where rolled before a total of seven. Each bet pays 5 to 1.
The following return table shows a house edge of 14.29%, ignoring rolls that neither win nor lose.
Bet | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | 5 | 1 | 0.142857 | 0.714286 |
Loss | -1 | 6 | 0.857143 | -0.857143 |
Total | 7 | 1.000000 | -0.142857 |